Base metals generally rise; SHFE aluminum, COMEX silver, and iron ore rise over 1%; SHFE gold and SHFE nickel fall over 2%; European container shipping surges [SMM midday review]

SMM May 13 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally declined, with SHFE aluminum rising by 11.14%. SHFE lead increased by 0.15%, SHFE copper fell by 0.31%, SHFE zinc dropped by 0.63%, and SHFE tin declined slightly. SHFE nickel fell by 2.02%.

In addition, alumina rose by 0.6%. Lithium carbonate fell by 0.85%, silicon metal declined by 1.09%, and polysilicon increased by 1.16%.

The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore increasing by 1.41% and stainless steel rising by 0.43%. Rebar rose by 1.05%, and HRC increased by 0.85%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 0.68%, and coke dropped by 0.31%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46, LME base metals generally declined. LME tin fell by 1.15%, LME lead rose by 0.1%, and LME copper, LME zinc, and LME aluminum all fell within 0.2%. LME nickel declined by 0.67%.

In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose by 0.37%, and COMEX silver increased by 1.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 2.44%, and SHFE silver dropped by 0.1%. Citi Research lowered its gold price target for the next three months from $3,500 per ounce to $3,150 per ounce on Monday, stating that it expects gold prices to consolidate due to progress in tariff negotiations.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.86%, closing at 1,493.8 points.

As of 11:46 on May 13, some midday futures market movements:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 13

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 45 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 90 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,215 yuan/mt, down 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,080 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Today, inventory in Guangdong declined again, hitting a recent low, primarily due to still low arrivals... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[SASAC: Plan a Batch of Strategic, Foundational, and Leading Major Projects Around Key Areas and Links in Economic and Social Development] The Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) held an expanded meeting on May 13. The meeting emphasized the need to implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focus on current work, and spare no effort to achieve the annual goals and tasks. It also called for an objective assessment of the development achievements of state-owned assets and central state-owned enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, summarizing achievements while comprehensively identifying shortcomings and issues, to provide a solid foundation for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan.It is necessary to conduct in-depth analysis of the situation, scientifically assess changes in the external environment, comprehensively evaluate trends in technological and industrial development, and formulate strategies and measures for the development, reform, supervision, and Party building of state-owned assets and central state-owned enterprises, enhancing the foresight, forward-looking nature, and pertinence of our work. It is essential to set scientific goals, closely adhering to the primary task of high-quality development, focusing on enhancing the "five values," and formulating ambitious goals for state-owned assets and central state-owned enterprises. We should place greater emphasis on developing new quality productive forces in line with local conditions, effectively optimizing the layout of strategic emerging industries and future-oriented industries, accelerating breakthroughs in key core technologies, and leveraging the roles of scientific and technological innovation, industrial control, and security support. It is crucial to implement major projects, focusing on key areas and links in economic and social development, and aligning with national needs and the strengths of central state-owned enterprises to plan a batch of strategic, foundational, and leading major projects, continuously strengthening the strategic support role of the state-owned economy.

The People's Bank of China conducted 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 405 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan was achieved.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 13 was 7.1991 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell by 0.22% to 101.58. Federal Reserve Governor Cooker stated that the suspension of high import tariffs has reduced the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in response to an economic slowdown. The market is also awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later in the day for new signals regarding the trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy. Current market pricing indicates that the Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, with a total reduction of 55 basis points this year, compared to expectations of a July cut last week.

Macro:

Today, data including China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for April, China's total social financing from the beginning of the year to April, China's new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to April, the US CPI annual growth rate for April (unadjusted), the US core CPI annual growth rate for April (unadjusted), the US energy CPI annual growth rate for April (unadjusted), the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in May, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in May, the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for Australia for the week ending May 11, the UK's unemployment rate for March (ILO standard), and the UK's average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to March (annual growth rate) will be released.

In addition, the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the April Monetary Policy Meeting, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech, and US President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 11 to 14.

Crude oil:

As of 11:46, crude oil futures dropped slightly, with US crude oil down 0.66% and Brent crude oil down 0.12%. International oil prices pulled back from the two-week high reached the previous day, after substantial progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, sparking market optimism that the trade conflict would end.

Preliminary survey results showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories likely fell last week, while distillate fuel oil inventories were expected to increase. Before the release of weekly inventory data, the average forecast of five surveyed institutions was that US crude oil inventories were expected to fall by approximately 2 million barrels in the week ending May 9. The weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot market overview:

►Despite falling inventories, premiums continue to decline; large price spread between futures contracts is the main reason [SMM spot copper in South China]

►Due to weak demand, suppliers continue to lower prices; spot premiums/discounts weaken again [SMM spot copper in North China]

►Steel mill tenders continue; manganese plant prices remain firm [SMM daily review of EMM]

Updates on the midday review of other metal spot markets will be available later. Please refresh to view.